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However, most of those who still smoke are older and addicted to smoking, so the price of cigarettes doesn't necessarily affect their behaviour." NZ Initiative chief economist Eric Crampton said it was hard to get a clear estimate on the size of the illicit tobacco market

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For example, a review by Guindon and colleagues [9] shows that the own-price elasticity for cigarettes varies from -0.1 to -1.4 in Latin America and the Caribbean countries

If this pattern continues, deaths will number around 1 billion in the 21st century.[4] This is equivalent to killing the entire U.S